Do more migrants shrink your slice of the economy? Treasury's answer is a $400 gap

News · 2026-09-25 · 4 min read

Two adults discuss practical skills around a small prototype at an Australian coworking workshop.

Short answer: the long-range forecast does not say migrants make Australians poorer, and it does not say Australia will stop needing workers. Whether the country takes in 185,000 or 285,000 migrants a year, Treasury's modelling puts the difference in GDP per capita by 2066 at around $400, set against an economy of about $150,000 per person. The bigger effects show up in growth, ageing and who pays for services.

What the forecast measured, and what it did not

The latest Intergenerational Report triggered another round of political argument about migration. Much of that argument asks whether newcomers dilute prosperity. In the modelling, that effect is tiny. If the claim was going to show up anywhere, it should have shown up here, and it did not.

What the numbers do show is capacity. Slower migration means a smaller economy, with national growth easing from roughly 1.6% to 1.3%. A faster-ageing population is then left holding a bigger bill.

The numbers side by side

Question	What the modelling suggests	Why a newcomer should care
Income per person	Around $400 apart by 2066 across the two migration paths	Your arrival is not what drives the average income of the country
Old-age dependency ratio	From about 27 retirees per 100 working-age people today to between 38 and 43 by 2066	Migrants arrive mostly in their working years, so they soften the climb
Debt under low migration	Gross debt as a share of GDP projected to rise by roughly 4.8 percentage points	Working-age taxpayers help pay for pensions, healthcare and the NDIS

Australia ages whichever path it takes. Higher migration does not reverse that trend, but it extends the tax base that funds the services an older population needs.

Productivity is the larger lever

The most striking finding got the least attention. Treasury modelled productivity growth between 0.8% and 1.6%, and at the high end income per person rises by tens of thousands of dollars while government debt nearly disappears. In plain words, how well the workforce uses its skills matters more than the headline migrant count.

For you, that shifts the question. It is less about how many people Australia admits and more about how quickly your skills can be put to work. A clear, current CV helps with that, and a tool such as Build AI CV can help you present your experience in the format local employers expect.

How to use this when planning your move

Treat the forecast as background, not as a promise about any visa.
Expect settings to keep moving. Net migration targets were already being wound down toward 225,000 by 2028.
Check the current rules on the Department of Home Affairs website before you spend money on an application.
Look for skills where demand is structural, such as care, trades and technical work. Our jobs page shows what employers are advertising now.

If you are comparing countries, the neighbouring option is worth a look too. Our piece on New Zealand's proposed Catalyst Visa shows how a different system is thinking about talent, and the discussion of what the same report means for newcomers covers the demographic side.

Common mistakes when reading population headlines

Assuming a political target is a settled rule. Targets change with governments and budgets.
Reading a debt or growth projection as a prediction instead of a warning about what happens if nothing changes.
Treating demand for working-age people as an entitlement to a visa. A shortage in one area does not mean you qualify.
Waiting for the debate to end before preparing documents, English tests and assessments.

Questions newcomers ask about population forecasts

Does a lower migration number mean fewer jobs for overseas workers?

Not automatically. The ageing trend continues either way, so demand for working-age people remains. Specific visa settings still decide who can apply.

Is the forecast a plan the government must follow?

No. It is a projection with assumptions. Policy can change well before the long-term dates it describes.

Why does productivity matter to me as a migrant?

Because it shows what kind of economy you are entering. Skills that get used quickly help both the employer and your own career.

Should I wait for politics to settle before applying?

Preparation does not depend on the debate. Skills assessments, tests and paperwork take time, so starting early is sensible.

Where do I check what is open to me right now?

Use the official visa pages and our visa guides for the main routes.

What to remember before you apply

The forecast says migration barely changes income per person, but it does change growth, ageing and the cost of services. Work from current official information, keep your documents ready and aim to put your skills to use quickly.

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