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Why one number could decide Australia's next visa squeeze

News · 2026-08-26 · 4 min read

Net overseas migration, or NOM, is the headline figure behind most arguments about Australian visas. It counts arrivals who stay for a year, minus people who leave to settle abroad. It is a measure of movement, not a visa quota, and that gap explains why it is hard to steer and why it matters to anyone planning to apply.

What the figure counts, and what it leaves out

NOM uses a 12/16-month rule. A person is counted if they spend 12 months in Australia within any 16-month window, even across several visits. A student who travels home for a month and returns is still counted.

The figure is not limited to visa holders. It includes returning Australian citizens and permanent residents, and New Zealanders moving across the Tasman. Diplomats and their families are excluded. Short placements under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program may or may not count, depending on their length.

Where the numbers sit

NOM was roughly 301,000 for the year to December 2025, down from around 556,000 in 2023 but above government projections. Treasury has pencilled in 225,000 by the 2027–28 financial year, although earlier forecasts undershot the real result.

Humanitarian visas added just under 15,000. The table shows why a target is hard to hit: citizens and New Zealanders sit almost entirely outside visa policy.

How the political positions differ

• One Nation has committed to a target of 130,000 and has pointed to cuts in graduate visas, student numbers and the skilled list.
• The Coalition has linked any cap to housing construction and has talked about a figure under 200,000, with one senator floating 180,000 for working holiday, student and select skilled visas.
• Labor has adopted the Treasury projection of 225,000 by 2028 as a working target and stresses enforcement, meaning temporary visa holders leave when their visas end.

Common mistakes when reading migration headlines

• Treating NOM as the number of visas granted. It also includes citizens and New Zealanders.
• Treating a political target as a rule. A target is a direction of travel, not a change to your visa conditions.
• Ignoring the streams under scrutiny. Student, graduate, working holiday and parts of the skilled list are the likeliest to see shifts in processing, eligibility or caps.
• Waiting for rhetoric to settle instead of reading the detail once it is published. Our look at what the latest record figures mean for you and the argument that the debate may be asking the wrong question give extra context.

Steps for planning around the debate

1. Work out which visa stream you would apply under.
2. Check whether that stream is among those parties want to tighten.
3. Read the official visa pages for current conditions before you spend money.
4. Keep your evidence of skills, work and English ready so a change in processing does not catch you out. Our overview for skilled workers, what the debate means for a move, and the current job listings are good places to continue.

Questions newcomers ask about NOM

Is NOM the same as the migration program planning level?

No. NOM is a measured outcome of movement in and out of the country, while a program level is a set number of places in permanent visa streams.

Why does NOM miss its targets?

Much of the movement comes from returning citizens and New Zealanders, who are hard to regulate through visa settings.

Does a lower target mean fewer visas for skilled workers?

Not automatically. The streams named for cuts differ between parties, and skilled visas are only one part of the figure.

Are PALM workers counted?

Possibly, depending on how long the placement lasts.

Should I delay my application until the numbers settle?

That depends on your pathway and timing. Read the official guidance for your visa and decide on the facts, not the headline.

What to remember before you apply

NOM is a broad count that includes citizens as well as visa holders. A target shows the direction of travel, not a certain outcome, so look at the detail of the stream you plan to use.

#migration #nom #australia visa #net overseas migration #skilled visas